In stormy economic seas, put Harper at the helm of the ship of state

October 06, 2008

by PRESTON MANNING, President and CEO, Manning Centre for Building Democracy

You are a Canadian voter trying to decide whom to support in the federal election. In recent days, you have seen the headlines of chaos in the financial markets. You've read about lenders tightening credit and businesses delaying plans and purchases. You've felt the cost of living, especially energy costs, rising. And you've heard the rumours of worse to come: mortgage defaults, lost homes, companies closing their doors, layoffs, runaway inflation.

So, you look at our political leaders and are left with the question: Who would be the best person at the helm of the ship of state as Canada heads into stormy economic seas?

As a former leader of the Opposition, I have met all five of the federal party leaders. I've known Stephen Harper, Gilles Duceppe, and Stéphane Dion the longest, having sat with all three in Parliament. Jack Layton and Elizabeth May I know only peripherally, but have followed their utterances and activities carefully since they assumed the leadership of their parties. Here is my personal assessment of their capacities for strong economic leadership.

Gilles Duceppe: Hopeless. He has a single-minded dedication to Quebec seceding from Canada - something that would be economically disastrous, especially now - and gets full marks for dedication to his cause. But real-world economics has never been, and never will be, Mr. Duceppe's or the Bloc's strong suit.

Elizabeth May: Strong and well meaning on the environment - the raison d'être of her party. But weak, terribly weak, on the economy. In some future election, how to marry a genuine commitment to environmental conservation with the prerequisites for a strong economy may well be the No. 1 issue. But, unfortunately for Ms. May, and perhaps for Canada, not this time.

Jack Layton: When I listen to Mr. Layton, and hear him prescribing corporate tax hikes on the very day stock markets were crashing to record lows, I think of two other NDP leaders: Bob Rae and Dave Barrett. One was pleasantly sincere and the other was bombastically entertaining. But both were economic disasters for their provinces - Ontario and B.C. - following outmoded anti-business, anti-investment and anti-American policies that cost their provinces capital investment, jobs and growth for years, even after disillusioned electorates had removed them from office. Mr. Layton is cut from the same cloth.

Stéphane Dion: What can one say about Mr. Dion? Whereas Mr. Harper grew up in an accountant's household, Mr. Dion grew up in an academic's household. Whereas Mr. Harper studied economics at university (writing his master's thesis on monetary policy), Mr. Dion's degrees are in political science and sociology - adequate preparation for salon politics but not for economic crises. Whereas Mr. Harper spent his initial four years in the House as an opposition finance critic, attending finance committee meetings and addressing the major fiscal and trade issues of the time, Mr. Dion's first years in Parliament were spent on constitutional issues. Whereas his concern about the environment may be sincere, the mismatched handling of environment and tax policy in his Green Shift plan underscores that economics and finance are his weaknesses, not strengths.

Stephen Harper: Of course, I am prejudiced when it comes to evaluating Mr. Harper. I hired him as the first policy chief of the Reform party while he was still a graduate student in economics at the University of Calgary. Soon after, he became the principal architect of the deficit- and debt-reduction campaign that eventually forced the Chrétien government to balance the federal budget. Elected to Parliament in 1993, Mr. Harper was a primary source of analysis of the economics of secession in the runup to the sovereignty referendum, as well as providing insightful analysis of NAFTA. No major economic issue in the Western world over the past 20 years has escaped his attention. And since becoming Prime Minister, he has proven his ability to more than hold his own in economic discussions with other world leaders.

Whether you agree with the particular positions of his party or his government, when it comes to having a background, a foundation and a grasp of economic issues in all their bewildering complexity, surely it must be acknowledged that Mr. Harper surpasses any other federal party leader.

If you have a heart problem, you go to a cardiologist. If you have an abscessed tooth, you go to a dentist. If the biggest challenges facing your country are economic, who should you put in charge?